PCR testing for COVID aims to detect individuals who have a high likelihood of being infectious. False positive test results have more than one cause in PCR testing and productive conversations about them require these categories to be distinguished. The operational false positive rate refers to the rate of error across the whole process. ThisContinue reading “A miscarriage of diagnosis”
Author Archives: clarecraigfrcpath
Links to other publications on COVID
Talk Radio interview Lockdown Sceptics When is COVID not COVID? Flu Like Illness The Spectator Our testing regime is dangerously flawed – here’s how to fix it COVID-19 and the false positive trap
Characteristics of Patients on ITU
Admissions to ITU will be biased by circumstances in spring vs September. For example, in spring only the sickest and younger patients were given an ITU because of fear of more patients coming in the next few days. In September, the threshold for admission is likely lower for patients who are at higher risk e.g.Continue reading “Characteristics of Patients on ITU”
Have you got COVIDITIS?
Juliet might have been right about the rose smelling just sweet by another name but what we name things is critical. A rose by any other name is a mislabelled rose. What we label as COVID is critical to tackling the problems we face. What is COVID? The case definitions that were set out atContinue reading “Have you got COVIDITIS?”
Evidence for and against false positive COVID ‘cases’ in July and August
For False positives: I am working full time on gathering evidence that we have had a significant false positive issue. Listed is the current evidence. This is a live post that I will add to as I get more information in: Characteristics of patients diagnosed with COVID March April 60% were over 60yrs old. JulyContinue reading “Evidence for and against false positive COVID ‘cases’ in July and August”
When is COVID-19 not COVID-19?
Here’s my first formal publication on this:
Why are we seeing an increase in cases?
When we break a recent record for the number of COVID cases we have dramatic headlines. On 7th Sept there were 2,048 new cases in the UK with 2,988 the day before up from around 1,500-1,900 in the preceding days. This has created a spike over and above the already upward trend. (I believe theContinue reading “Why are we seeing an increase in cases?”
Variation in the false positive rate
There are numerous factors that can contribute to a false positive result. We understand some more than others. Error can creep in right from the moment the swab is opened until it passes quality control checks in the lab. Examples we understand include other RNA being present from a different source and cross contamination. EachContinue reading “Variation in the false positive rate”
Waiting for Zero
For all the people carefully counting COVID deaths and cases there may be an expectation that the number we are aiming for is zero. This is a mistake. There will always be a proportion of cases tested who will be given a false positive test result when they do not have COVID. What does zeroContinue reading “Waiting for Zero”