For False positives:
I am working full time on gathering evidence that we have had a significant false positive issue. Listed is the current evidence. This is a live post that I will add to as I get more information in:
- Characteristics of patients diagnosed with COVID
- March April 60% were over 60yrs old. July August only 11% were over 60yrs.
- March April 2% were under 20yrs old. Jul August it was 19%.
- March April 60% men. July August 50%.
- Ethnicity data TBC
- Characteristics of disease behaviour of hospital admissions
- March April death rate was 6%. July August death rate 1.5% = background rate for all hospital admissions.
- Length of stay TBC
- % admitted to ITU TBC
- % with oxygen saturations below 95% at any point TBC
- % with ground glass changes on chest CT TBC
- Random sampling of general population
- 95% of households in ONS survey had only one case since June
- Antibody levels in the population
- Since June, percentage of population with antibodies to COVID has fallen away. The last rise seen was seen in the Midlands at the beginning of June.
5. Lack of antibody production in cohorts diagnosed with PCR testing
6. Increasing proportion of ONS predicted total cases are being detected by testing. It looks like we’ll be detecting more cases than are predicted in a month’s time.
7. Deciding what caused and contributed to death involves piecing together evidence and drawing reasonable conclusions. Despite ‘evidence’ of COVID it was left off one third of summer death certificates in alleged COVID deaths. https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/death-certificate-data-covid-19-as-the-underlying-cause-of-death/
8. Data on patients in ITU and deaths per hospital trust showed a tight correlation in spring that was lost since.
9. Ratio of hospital admissions to cases from two weeks earlier would imply CFR of 0.15% unless diluted by false positive results
Against false positives
ICNARC has carried out an audit of the characteristics of patients on ITU with a COVID diagnosis. They characteristics are similar for patients admitted in Sept and those admitted up to 31st August. To draw definite conclusions we need to compare March, April and May admissions with July onwards.